Weekly Market
Review

November 3-7, 2025
Market visualization

Market Summary

The week of November 3-7, 2025, saw significant market volatility as tech stocks faced a sharp selloff, particularly in AI-related names. While the S&P 500 managed a small gain early in the week on strong Magnificent 7 earnings, sentiment reversed sharply by Thursday and Friday. The ongoing government shutdown (entering its 38th day and now the longest in U.S. history), weak labor market data, and concerns about AI valuations drove investors into defensive positions. The week highlighted the market's narrow leadership and growing concerns about economic headwinds.

Economic Data & Policy Impact

ISM Manufacturing PMI for October fell to 48.7, marking the eighth consecutive month of contraction and coming in below the consensus forecast of 49.4. This reading signaled ongoing weakness in the manufacturing sector, with production declining to 48.2% and new orders at 49.4%. Survey respondents cited tariff uncertainty and weak demand as key concerns.

Challenger Job Cuts report showed October layoffs surging to 153,074, up 183% from September and 175% year-over-year. This represents the highest October total in 22 years (since 2003) and marks 2025 as the worst year for announced layoffs since 2009. Through October, employers announced 1.1 million job cuts, a 65% increase from 2024. The technology sector led with 33,281 cuts, driven by AI-related restructuring.

ADP Private Payrolls for October showed only 42,000 jobs added, reversing two consecutive months of losses but well below expectations. The leisure and hospitality sector showed concerning weakness, viewed as a potential leading indicator of consumer sentiment deterioration.

Government Shutdown Impact: The federal government shutdown, which began October 1, 2025, reached 38 days this week, making it the longest in U.S. history. The Congressional Budget Office estimated the shutdown has taken approximately 1% off annualized Q4 GDP growth, with potential impacts rising to 1.5% by mid-November and 2% by month-end. Approximately 40 million Americans face interruptions to SNAP benefits, and the absence of official employment data (October jobs report was not released) forced investors to rely on alternative private-sector data.

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment plunged to 50.3 in November, down 6.2% month-over-month and about 30% year-over-year, reaching its lowest level since June 2022. The reading came in well below the expected 53.0, reflecting deep concerns about the government shutdown and economic uncertainty.

Federal Reserve Speculation: Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled caution about a December rate cut, stating it was "far from certain." However, the weak labor market data led money markets to price in approximately 60% probability of a 25 basis point cut in December. The Fed has already cut rates twice since September.

Market Sentiment & Major Index Performers

The S&P 500 (SPX) gained 0.7% early in the week, briefly trading above 6,900 for the first time mid-week. However, sharp declines Thursday and Friday resulted in the index closing the week down approximately 1% overall at 6,720.32.

The Nasdaq Composite (COMP) faced significant pressure, falling over 3% for the week and closing at 23,053.99 after dropping 1.9% on Thursday alone. This marked the index's worst weekly performance since early April when it dropped 10%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) declined over 1% for the week, closing at 46,912.30 after losing 398 points (0.8%) on Thursday.

Market Breadth Concerns: The equal-weighted S&P 500 fell 1.7% for the week while the cap-weighted index gained early, highlighting extreme concentration in the Magnificent 7 stocks. The Bloomberg Magnificent 7 equal-weighted index rose 3.3% early in the week before reversing sharply. By week's end, only a handful of mega-cap names had buoyed the broader market, with narrow leadership becoming a major concern for strategists.

Defensive Rotation: Health care, energy, and consumer staples sectors outperformed as investors rotated out of high-growth technology names. The Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK) and Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (XLY) fell 2.0% and 2.3% respectively on Thursday.

Volatility: The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) jumped 8.3% to 19.50 on Thursday as fears about tech valuations and economic weakness intensified.

Magnificent 7 & Big Tech Earnings

$NVDA Nvidia shares traded lower with the broader semiconductor sector. The company's upcoming earnings on November 19, 2025, are expected to be a major market-moving event, with analysts expecting adjusted EPS of approximately $1.25 and revenue of $54.77 billion (up 56% year-over-year).

NVDA stock chart

$META Meta Platforms traded with the broader tech sector this week, facing pressure from AI valuation concerns despite strong fundamentals in the advertising business and continued investments in AI infrastructure.

META stock chart

$AAPL Apple shares showed relative stability compared to other tech names, benefiting from its diversified business model and strong services revenue. The company continues to navigate supply chain challenges while investing heavily in AI capabilities.

AAPL stock chart

$MSFT Microsoft traded lower with mega-cap tech peers, though its Azure cloud platform continues to show strong growth driven by AI workload adoption. The company announced layoffs as part of its ongoing efficiency measures.

MSFT stock chart

$AMZN Amazon faced pressure alongside other tech giants this week. The company's partnership with OpenAI and continued AWS growth remain bright spots, though e-commerce margins face ongoing pressure from operational costs and layoff announcements.

AMZN stock chart

$GOOGL Alphabet shares declined with the tech sector, though the company's AI initiatives and search dominance remain core strengths. Cloud infrastructure spending continues to support growth, while advertising revenue shows resilience despite economic headwinds.

GOOGL stock chart

Semiconductor & AI Sector Volatility

The semiconductor sector experienced extreme volatility, with sharp early-week gains reversing into significant losses:

  • •$AMD Advanced Micro Devices fell 9% for the week (7% on Thursday alone) despite reporting results that beat estimates, as investors questioned AI growth sustainability.
  • •$AVGO Broadcom declined 6% for the week amid broad AI sector weakness.
  • •$MU Micron initially rallied 5% early in the week on optimism from the Amazon-OpenAI deal but gave back gains later.
  • •$SMCI Super Micro Computer faced continued pressure amid valuation concerns.
  • •$ARM Arm Holdings traded lower with the broader semiconductor group.

The VanEck Semiconductor ETF $SMH was up 1% on Monday before reversing sharply as the week progressed, reflecting the sector's extreme volatility.

Additional Earnings

  • •$WBD Warner Bros. Discovery reported a net loss of $148 million for Q3, with revenue down 6% and advertising revenue dropping 16%.
  • •$EXPE Expedia soared 15% premarket Friday after topping consensus for earnings and revenue and raising its fiscal 2025 revenue forecast.
  • •$ABNB Airbnb rose 4% premarket Friday after beating revenue expectations and delivering stronger-than-expected guidance.
  • •$NCLH Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings plunged nearly 14% after missing revenue expectations, dragging down the broader travel and leisure sector.
  • •$PLNT Planet Fitness beat revenue expectations at $330.3 million (up 13% YoY) and raised 2025 guidance to 11% revenue growth from 10%.
  • •$PTON Peloton posted its second consecutive profitable quarter with surprise net income of $13.9 million and raised its full-year adjusted EBITDA outlook by $25 million on both ends to $425-475 million.
  • •Other notable reporters: $DASH DoorDash, $HOOD Robinhood, $SNAP Snap, $SPOT Spotify, $MCD McDonald's, $MAR Marriott, and $APP AppLovin with mixed results across the board.

Chip Sector & Trade Developments

  • •The VanEck Semiconductor ETF $SMH was up 1 percent on Monday before reversing as the week progressed, reflecting swings tied to AI infrastructure deals and earnings.
  • •Supreme Court hearing on Trump-era tariffs raised hopes for a potential rollback, providing a midweek boost to equities, especially in trade-sensitive sectors.
  • •Ongoing uncertainty over US-China trade relations and the future of tariffs remained a key overhang for chipmakers and global supply chains.

Tariffs & Trade Developments

Supreme Court hearings on Trump-era tariffs raised hopes for a potential rollback, providing a midweek boost to equities, especially in trade-sensitive sectors. Ongoing uncertainty over US-China trade relations and the future of tariffs remained a key overhang for chipmakers and global supply chains. Survey respondents to the ISM Manufacturing report cited tariff unpredictability as a major concern affecting pricing, costs, and future planning.

Global Market Impact

Global equities mirrored US volatility, with European and Asian markets reacting to US tech swings and macroeconomic data. Currency markets saw the US dollar strengthen against major peers as risk aversion increased and traders sought safe havens. Treasury yields edged lower late in the week as investors moved into bonds, though the "flight to safety" dynamic was muted compared to typical risk-off environments.

Cryptocurrency Market

Cryptocurrency markets reflected the broader risk-off sentiment:

  • •Bitcoin fell approximately 6% during the week from highs near $107,000 earlier in the week to around $101,300 by Friday, November 7. Bitcoin briefly dipped below $100,000 on November 4, marking the first time since late June.
  • •Ethereum showed significant weakness, declining approximately 9% on Tuesday alone to trade around $3,275.
  • •$COIN Coinbase and $MSTR Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) both fell approximately 2% in Friday premarket trading, reflecting the crypto selloff.

Other Notable Market News

  • $BRK.A Berkshire Hathaway cash hoard hit a record $381.6 billion with no buybacks despite a double-digit stock decline since May. Q3 operating profit rose 34% year-over-year, driven by a 200% surge in insurance underwriting income.
  • $CDE Coeur Mining announced acquisition of New Gold for $7 billion, creating a $20 billion North American precious metals company.
  • $SRPT Sarepta Therapeutics tumbled 36% after a failed late-stage study.
  • $ADM Archer-Daniels-Midland fell 8% after slashing full-year guidance.
  • Corporate Layoffs: Major companies including AMZN Amazon, UPS UPS, TGT Target, IBM IBM, MSFT Microsoft, PARA Paramount, and GM General Motors announced plans to eliminate more than 60,000 roles this year as part of historic rounds of white-collar layoffs.

Looking Ahead

$NVDA Nvidia earnings scheduled for November 19, 2025, are expected to be a major market-moving event. Analysts expect adjusted EPS of approximately $1.25 (up from $0.81 last year) and revenue of $54.77 billion (up 56% year-over-year).

Other key earnings next week include: $CRWV CoreWeave, $OKLO Oklo, $CSCO Cisco, $AMAT Applied Materials, and $DIS Walt Disney.

Investors continue to monitor government shutdown negotiations, with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer proposing short-term funding in exchange for a one-year extension of enhanced Affordable Care Act tax credits.

Overall Takeaway

This week underscored the market's vulnerability to concentrated leadership and sensitivity to both macroeconomic signals and sector-specific news. The sharp reversal from early-week optimism to late-week selling pressure highlighted growing concerns about AI valuations, economic weakness, and the sustainability of the Magnificent 7's dominance. While major tech companies demonstrated strong operational performance and robust AI spending plans, investors questioned whether elevated valuations could be justified amid mounting economic headwinds.

The absence of official government economic data due to the historic 38-day shutdown forced markets to rely on alternative indicators, creating additional uncertainty. The surge in announced layoffs, weak manufacturing data, and collapsing consumer sentiment painted a concerning picture of the economic backdrop, even as corporate profits remained resilient.

Policy uncertainty—from Fed rate cut speculation to Supreme Court tariff hearings to government shutdown negotiations—continues to add crosscurrents to an already volatile market environment. Investors should remain nimble, as leadership can change rapidly and headline risk remains elevated across sectors. The upcoming Nvidia earnings on November 19 will likely serve as a critical test for AI valuations and could determine whether the recent tech selloff represents a healthy correction or the beginning of a more significant downturn.

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